The National Centre for Research and Development



CORE; Programme area: climate change including polar research; ID: 200799



Project title: Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland


Acronym: CHASE-PL


Project Promoter: Institute for Agricultural and Forest Environment of Polish Academy of Sciences


Polish partners: Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering


Norwegian Partners: Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway)


Project cost (EUR): 960 023


Grant amount (EUR): 960 023

Duration: 40 months






Project summary:

The CHASE-PL project will extend the state-of-the-art of the detection of climate change in Poland, projection of climate change and its impacts in selected sectors, and interpretation of uncertainty. In the climate-science part of the project, change detection in observed climate record will be examined for a range of variables of relevance. In addition, validation of re-analysis and modelling of snow conditions will be accomplished. Projections will be accomplished via empirical-statistical downscaling of climate projections, bias correction and post-processing of downscaled projections. Projections of extreme daily precipitation in Poland will be also produced and modelling of future snow conditions will be carried out. Projections will be compared with the control period. In the impact part, the project will study large-scale consequences of climate change in the river basins of the Vistula and the Odra, and their sub-catchments, with consideration of water resources, hydrological, environmental, and agricultural aspects. Next, an index-based assessment of projected climate change impacts will be made for in-stream ecosystems, wetlands, and agrosystems. Uncertainty analysis will be conducted, consisting of identification of sources of uncertainty, quantification of components of uncertainty, and devising a framework for reducing uncertainty. There is a broad dissemination agenda, ranging from high-quality scientific publications, such as articles in peer-reviewed journals and a book on climate change and climate change impacts in Poland, in English and in Polish, and presentations at scientific conferences to media-oriented products, including an interactive web mapping system. The project, capitalizing on strengths of Polish and Norwegian partners, is expected to contribute, in a considerable way, to increase of understanding of climate change impacts in selected sectors of Poland, of primary importance for adaptation.


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